ANALYTICS CLIENT SEMINAR LONDON

8 am

Registration and Networking Breakfast

8:50 am

Welcome - The Global Energy Market Outlook
Chris Midgley, Global Head of Analytics

• The world is becoming increasingly connected

9:20 am

Economic and Oil Demand Growth
Claudio Galimberti, Head of Demand and Refining, Analytics

• The longest expansionary business cycle ever and strong oil demand growth - will it continue or succumb to policy mistakes.

• Biofuels and its impact on demand

9:35 am

Global Oil Supply Balances and Price
Shin Kim - Head of Supply and Production, Analytics

• Shale growth, OPEC restraint balance supply amid tightening stocks outlook

9:50 am

NGLs and petrochemicals
Jennifer Van Dinter, Head of NGL and Petrochemicals

• US NGL growth and its impact on global markets

10:05 am

Refining, Product Pricing and Trade
Rick Joswick - Global Head of Oil Pricing & Trade Flow Analytics

• Major changes ahead with IMO 2020, US exports, and quality balances

10:20 am

Wrap Up and Outlook on Price and Q&A

10:40 am

Networking Break

11 am

Global Gas Markets
Ira Joseph, Global Head of Gas and Power Analytics

• How low will prices go?

• US Supply

11:20 am

Global LNG Markets
Frank Konertz, Head of LNG Analytics

• Dislocation from oil, coupling with global gas, and the FID and demand dilemmas

11:40 am

Global Coal Markets
Joe Aldina

• Is there a future or is it a race to the bottom?

11:55 am

The European Gas and Power Market
Chris Durman

• Europe’s gas transition is underway with increased connection to power markets

• Record switching, carbon price and renewables

12:15 pm

Wrap Up and Q&A

12:30 pm

Networking lunch

1:30 pm

Breakout session 1

Option 1 - Oil: Oil supply trends interact as shale, OPEC, deepwater, NGLs, and biofuels dance to differing cadences and drive price.

Shin Kim, Jennifer Van Dinter, Paul Sheldon, Claudio Galimberti

• Shale crude growth unstoppable over the medium term if the price is right

• Other non-OPEC declines are relentless but new projects return with long lead times

• OPEC disruptions and restraint can act quickly

• While NGLs and biofuels move at their own pace

• How the different development/production cycles interact and affect price

Option 2 - Gas: Europe’s gas supply tensions

James Huckstepp, Frank Konertz, Adrian Dorsch

• Europe’s gas transition is underway

• Record high storage stocks still threaten Europe’s ability to balance

• Russia’s export strategy and Nordstream 2

• LNG – how much and for how long?

3 pm

Networking break

3:20 pm

Breakout session 2

Option 1 - Oil/NGLs: Oil supply getting lighter/sweeter with shale crude and NGLs but so is demand with IMO 2020

Chris Midgley, Rick Joswick

• How disruptive will IMO 2020 be?

• How will refining adapt both to cover IMO 2020 and to match lighter supply to refined product demand longer term?

• Is a surplus at the top of the barrel the next “big thing”?

Option 2 - European power market dynamics Glenn Rickson, Kerry Thacker-Smith, Giuliano Bordignon

• European power markets are becoming increasingly interconnected

• Coal/nuclear phase out while renewables grow and thermal demand volatility

• Despite growth in solar and wind capacity, role of hydro back in the spotlight this summer

• Nuclear: renewed flexibility from an aging fleet

• S-19 coal-to-gas switching – drivers, limitations and evidence to date

• Look ahead - forecasting coal-to-gas switching and the risks to the channel

4:50 pm

Networking drinks reception

8 am

Registration & Networking Breakfast

9 am

Breakout session 3

Option 1 - Oil: Economic growth and near term product specification changes drive oil product demand but technology and policy have longer term implications

Claudio Galimberti, Roman Kramarchuk, Dan Klein

• Near term questions revolve around economic growth or contraction. How the longest expansionary business cycle ever may succumb to policy mistakes, or continue on.

• Longer term question is whether regionally/globally we are nearing a tipping point toward “peak demand”

Option 2 - LNG markets

Ira Joseph, Frank Konertz, Samer Mosis

• Balances, price and trade

• LNG, Oil, and IMO – a three way dance with more than three dancers: the Saudis, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and East Asia rebalance their fuel mix

10 am

Networking break

10:15 am

Breakout session 4

Option 1 - Oil/NGLs: Trade shifts with the US export juggernaut for crude oil, refined products, and LPG

Rick Joswick, Jennifer Van Dinter, Mike McCafferty

• Centers of growth are not aligned: Demand in Asia; crude/NGL supply in US/Mideast; refining in Mideast/Asia; petchems in Asia/Mideast/US

• IMO 2020 effects on trade will be large, but relatively short lived

Option 2 - Renewables, new technology and global carbon pricing

Roman Kramarchuk, Dan Klein

• EU ETS market outlook

• Global renewables outlook

• Battery storage – will it save the day?

11:15 am

Networking Break

10:30 am

Plenary roundtable talking about key outlook risks and how they integrate across commodities

Moderated by: Chris Midgley; Dan Klein, Roman Kramarchuk, Rick Joswick, Ira Joseph, Claudio Galimberti, Jennifer Van Dinter, Shin Kim

• Coal vs LNG vs fuel oil balances in power

• Crude oil to natural gas ratio and implications for NGLs and petchem feedstock

• Lighter oil supply with growth in US shale oil and NGLs vs. Iran/Venezuela sanctions

• Electricity versus oil demand in a warming world

• Huge increase in middle distillate demand vs. refining secondary unit investments

• Tradeflow and arbitrage implications for crude and products

12:30 pm

Close of seminar