S&P Global Commodity Insights Client Briefing Europe 2023

11:25 AM

Short-term oil market outlook:

The war in Ukraine has heralded a new era for oil markets. Government intervention has partitioned the oil market, shifted trade and is contributing to volatility. In this session we will focus on the key factors shaping the market, identify uncertainties and describe how it all is likely to translate into price.

Rick Joswick, Near-term Oil Markets

Payam Hashempour, Crude Oil Markets, Europe

12:10 PM

Refining outlook: How long will the boom last?

Refining has been booming. Tightness in available capacity has led to cracks and margins being sustained at levels well-above historical averages. In this session we will provide our outlook for the refined product market and explore whether the boom will turn to bust.

Daniel Evans, Global Fuels and Refining

Kang Wu, Global Demand

12:55 PM

Networking lunch

2:00 PM

Trade reshuffle: Shifting trade patterns for crude and product following the EU bans and G7 prices caps.

The EU ban on the import of Russian crude oil and refined product is driving a shift in global oil trade. In this session we will describe the impact of trading restrictions for Russian origin crude and refined product. We will also look ahead and provide some insights on what we expect to see in the coming months and our expectations for durable changes in trade flows.

Hédi Grati, Fuels and Refining, Europe and Eurasia

Rahul Kapoor, VP, Head of Shipping Analytics and Research 

Tanya Stepanova, Fuels and Refining, Eurasia

Rebeka Foley, Near-term Oil Markets

2:50 PM

Olefins, aromatics and the circular economy

Tony Potter, Chemicals, Derivatives, Plastics & Materials Lead

Andrew Neale, Executive Director, Aromatics

3:35 PM

Coffee Break

3:55 PM

Trade-offs in the petrochemical feedstock markets:

Whilst refining has boomed, petrochemicals has been in the doldrums. In this session we will focus on the factors driving pricing for petrochemical feedstocks. We will provide a short-term outlook for the feedstock markets before deep diving into the market dynamics for gasoline and naphtha and discussing the impact on octane value.

Rick Joswick, Near-term Oil markets

Darryl Rogers, Global NGLs

Katie Elliott, Aromatics

4:45 PM

On track for fit for 55? Medium-term outlook for European refining and chemicals:

Europe’s ambitious plans to reduce emissions will have a dramatic impact on the refining industry. In this session, we will explore how technology and policy are shaping demand for fuels and chemicals and then explore how refiners and chemical companies can adjust to a future operating environment where fuel demand is lower, chemicals demand is higher and the focus on emissions is increasing.

Eleanor Budds, Fuels and Refining, Europe

Louise Vertz, Long-term Fuels and Refining

Rasool Barouni, Refining Economics

Rahul Kapoor, Shipping

Olivier Maronneaud, Methanol and Derivatives

5:30 PM

End of event and networking drinks

11:25 AM

Future supply from the company perspective:

The energy trilemma, together with pressure from investors, is forcing oil and gas companies to balance their capital between investments and investor reward, as well as revisit their strategies and reshape their portfolio. The following questions will be examined:

• Are companies spending enough to meet future demand?
• Which companies double down on the energy transition? And, how is their contribution to future supply expected to change?
• In a limited exploration environment, what vehicles are companies using to replace reserves produced?

Laura Sima, Company Research

12:10 PM

Rising costs provide new challenges to extracting additional oil and gas supplies:

CAPEX costs are increasing at their highest rates since 2015, with Upstream Capital Costs Index (UCCI) up 28% since Q2 2020. Cost mitigation is an increasingly important piece of the puzzle for energy companies in a volatile oil price environment:

• Material prices were a major driver for cost escalation in 2022 and early in 2023.
• Record-high inflation in some regions contributed to rising material prices.
• Tight labor markets are also putting upward pressure on prices as competition for skilled labor is high.
• Offshore costs are raising owing to the price of rigs and competition at shipyards.

This section will explore changes that operators can make to maintain lower break-evens.

Kate Ashcroft, Costs & Supply Chain

12:55 PM

Networking lunch

2:00 PM

Navigating an Oil and Gas Technology Landscape in Transformation.

Just as technology developments across the value chain are increasingly needed to deliver hydrocarbon resources in an effective and low-carbon manner, the traditional industry segments are pivoting away from oilfield technology development, toward low-carbon solutions, such as CCUS and renewables. Successfully navigating this shifting technology and innovation landscape will have a strong impact on the sector’s capabilities to raise efficiencies, decarbonize and maintain production, and consequently on overall energy security.
During this presentation, S&P Global experts will explore the main shifts and how best to navigate them:

• Signs of a shifting oil and gas technology and innovation landscape
• The increasing role of “digital” to meet the oil industries ambitions
• Accelerating technology adoption and value capture

Oscar A. Abbink, Energy Technology & Innovation

2:50 PM

Regulatory and policy approaches:

S&P Global experts will explore how different countries are adapting their terms and regulations in a decarbonizing world.

Contrasts in upstream regulation:

On the one hand, some countries are enacting legislation to limit new exploration and imposing tougher compliance obligations on E&P activities. On the other hand, there are countries taking a different approach by enhancing their fiscal and contractual terms to attract more investment to the upstream sector.

• What signposts from governments should market participants be looking for? Are there any regional trends at play?

Regulation of low-carbon projects (with a focus on upstream):

Governments experiment with incentives for CCS/CCUS, and other low-carbon solutions, to lessen upstream sector’s main burden in a decarbonizing world – emissions.

• What regulatory and policy measures are governments implementing to decarbonize the oil and gas sector and/or attract low-carbon investment?
• Are investors being offered long-term regulatory certainty, or is much still to be determined? What are the main gaps and potential red flags?

Juliana Abella, Policy & Regulation

3:35 PM

Coffee Break

3:55 PM

A case for frontier exploration. IOCs are faced with challenges on several fronts:

provide investor returns, replace reserves, and decarbonize. All of which are placing increasing pressure on exploration budgets, and hence limiting companies’ future optionality in their oil and gas producing portfolios.
What does it mean for IOCs and their portfolio choices?

• Frontier exploration provides the opportunity to make Giant or even Super Giant discoveries.
• These large discoveries tend to have a much smaller carbon footprint per barrel produced than producing assets and smaller discoveries.
• With large tracts of frontier acreage still available, Africa offers IOCs a potential solution to decarbonize while maintaining security of supply.

Justin Cochrane, Upstream Intelligence, Africa

4:45 PM

Panel discussion: understand the fragility of future supply through the upstream sector lens

Laura Sima, Company Research

Kate Ashcroft, Costs & Supply Chain

Oscar A. Abbink, Energy Technology & Innovation

Juliana Abella, Policy & Regulation

Justin Cochrane, Upstream Intelligence, Africa

Moderator: Michael Wynne, Vice President Upstream Solutions

5:30 PM

End of event and networking drinks