Scenarios to understand a volatile energy transition
The 2020s have so far proved a volatile decade, challenged on environment, health and geopolitical fronts. A long-heralded energy transition has struggled to emerge, and while global markets are now positioned for significant and structural change in the coming years, this change will likely not occur fast enough to meet medium- and long-term greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals. But an uncertain world can and will produce surprises that could open up new potential pathways for global energy and emission trends. The 2024 S&P Global Commodity Insights Energy & Climate Scenarios describe these potential pathways to the future and indicate what events could accelerate – or delay – the global energy transition.
Our scenarios
The S&P Global Commodity Insights core scenario framework consists of three long-term
global energy and emissions outlooks. Inflections is our base-case scenario. It
represents the integration of regional and sector analysis from across S&P Global
Commodity Insight, illustrating the pace of change in long-term global energy supply,
demand and trade, based on current views and assumptions about markets, policy, consumer
behavior and technology. Inflections provides a comprehensive global energy outlook for
strategic planning, benchmarking and base-case assessment purposes.
Our two other scenarios, Green Rules and Discord, are intended to help our
clients consider and prepare for alternative outcomes that deviate from the Inflections
base case in different, challenging ways.
For 2024, our wider scenarios framework also includes two back-cast cases – Accelerated CCS (ACCS) and Multitech Mitigation (MTM) – which describe trajectories to global net-zero emissions by 2050, along two distinct technology pathways.
This report offers some key highlights from our full update.
Our Energy and Climate Scenarios service helps decision-makers formulate and test strategies and business plans in a new era of energy. For more information, visit our services.