Advanced Petrochemicals: Price Forecasting, Trading Strategies, and Risk Management
The petrochemical industry is at a pivotal moment of transformation, driven by the energy transition and shifting global demand dynamics. As decarbonization reshapes traditional oil markets, petrochemicals are becoming a primary growth driver, with feedstock demand expected to outpace overall oil demand significantly in the coming decades. This evolution is propelled by the growing role of chemicals in refining strategies, technological advancements, and the increasing need for sustainable solutions across industries.
In this rapidly evolving landscape, understanding petrochemical pricing, forecasting, trading mechanisms, and risk management is more crucial than ever. This course is designed to provide participants with the tools and expertise to navigate complex pricing dynamics, forecast market trends, manage risks effectively, and capitalize on emerging opportunities in the petrochemical sector. By combining industry fundamentals with advanced forecasting, trading strategies, and risk management practices, this course offers professionals the insights they need to stay competitive and thrive in a transforming industry.
Agenda
Course Introduction
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Session 1 – Petrochemical Basics and Forecasting Techniques
- Petrochemical Feedstocks and Value Chains
- Overview of olefins (ethylene, propylene, C4s) and aromatics (BTX)
- Price Definitions and Forecasting Methodologies
- Short-, medium-, and long-term forecasting approaches
- Short-term Forecasting Techniques
- Case Study: Forecasting the next five months' prices for selected feedstock
Linking feedstocks and value chains to market behaviour -
Session 2 – Advanced Forecasting Techniques
- Medium-term Forecasting Techniques
- Production cost analysis, cash cost models, and integrated case studies
- Inherent Margin Analysis
- Supply/demand balances, operating rates, and market momentum
- Case Study: Demand forecast and global supply-demand-trade flow planning
- Long-term Forecasting Techniques
- ROI analysis and price forecasting
- Case Study: Forecasting medium- to long-term ROI and prices
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Session 3 – Trading Strategies and Risk Management
- Trading Fundamentals
- Commercial lexicons, pricing concepts, and optimization strategies
- Case Study: Spot cargo decision-making and optimization opportunities
- Risk Management in Trading
- Commercial, regulatory, political, and operational risk elements
- Case Study: Managing laycan delays and quality gap risks
- Hedging Strategies and Advanced Trading
- Utilizing market contango and other trading opportunities
- Case Study: Hedging strategies in action
- Integration of Forecasting and Trading
- Linking forecasting insights to strategic trading decisions
Pricing:
Delegate
$3,200
$3,600
Standard Rate*
$3,950
* Rates are in USD and are not inclusive of local taxes or VAT. Training course terms and conditions apply.
* Super Early Bird Rates are avaliable 12 weeks out; Early Bird Rates are 6 weeks out; Online Rates aveliable with specific locations
* Rates are in USD and are not inclusive of local taxes or VAT. Training course terms and conditions apply.